In 1991, the Soviet Republic of Georgia gained its independence from the Soviet Union but a civil war erupted during the 90s regarding the pro-russian separatists regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The civil never really ended and in August 2008, Russia falsely accused Georgia of committing "genocide” and "aggression against South Ossetia" and launched a full-scale land, air and sea invasion after the country declared its intention to join the EU and NATO.
The government led by the President Mikheil Saakashvili had become increasingly unpopular during its rule since 2004 for its widespread corruption and harsh market-oriented economic policies. Then, the loss of territories after the 2008 Russo-Georgian War contributed to the party's increasing loss of support among the general populace. Given this context, Bidzina Ivanishvili, a populist conservative oligarch that made his fortune by acquiring banking and metals assets at low prices when the Russian government sold them out in the 90s, decided to step-up as national candidate with a new party called Georgian Dream and eventually won the 2012 elections.
Since then, the economy and stability in Georgia improved, and Georgia was getting closer to being accepted into the EU. But, after 2016, Ivanishvili and the Georgian Dream party became increasingly authoritarian, conservative on social issues and pro-Russian on foreign affairs, probably because of ideology and his personal economic ties. On internal affairs, the Georgian Dream proposed to adopt the Foreign Agent law, inspired from Russia, that limited the operation of western organizations in the country. After the EU stated that with this law Georgia would never make it into the EU, massive protests erupted in the capital Tbilisi, but the government decided to implement it anyway in December 2023.
In the elections of October 2024, the pro-western opposition formed an anti-Georgian Dream coalition. All independent polls showed a clear support for the coalition of 60% against the pro-russian party. However, the official results gave Georgian Dream 54% of the votes, and the opposition did not recognize the election claiming Russian interference, which has strongly been proven with evidence. During the following weeks, there were minor protests, but all escalated this week when the EU announced officially that it will not recognize the results and a new rule of the Georgian Dream.
Russia is now describing what is happening in Georgia as a coup d’état against his favorite candidate, and the repression of the government against pro-western demonstrators is reminiscent of many scenes of the Euromaidan Revolution in Ukraine in 2013-2014. Around 100 people have been arrested in the last two days and the EU has announced the stop of any political cooperation with the current government. However, it is unlikely that Russia will intervene in Georgia, as many people fear, but it is true that this crisis adds another complication in solving the puzzle regarding the integration of ex-Soviet republics into the western sphere of influence.
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